Activism Discussion: Getting Hotter: Predicting The Climate Evolution During 2004-2014 Period

Getting Hotter: Predicting The Climate Evolution During 2004-2014 Period
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EconomicDemocracy Coop
2007-08-09 19:32:57 EST
Ten-year climate model unveiled
Scientists say they have developed a model to predict how ocean
currents, as well as human activities, will affect temperatures over
the next decade.

By including short-term natural events, such as El Nino, a UK team
says it is able to offer 10-year projections.

Models have previously focused on how the globe will warm over a
century.

Writing in Science, Met Office researchers project that at least half
of the years between 2009 and 2014 are likely to exceed existing
records.

However, the Hadley Centre researchers said that the influence of
natural climatic variations were likely to dampen the effects of
emissions from human activities between now and 2009.



But over the decade as a whole, they project the global average
temperature in 2014 to be 0.3C warmer than 2004.

Currently, 1998 is the warmest year on record, when the global mean
surface temperature was 14.54C (58.17F).

Doug Smith, a climate scientist at the Hadley Centre, explained how
the new model differed from existing ones.

"On a 10-year timescale, both natural internal variability and the
global warming signal (human induced climate change) are important;
whereas looking out to 2100, only the global warming signal will
dominate."

The latest assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), said that human activity was "very likely" causing the
world to warm, and predicted the global average temperature were
probably going to increase by 1.8-4.0C (3.2-7.2F) by the end of the
century.

"It is the same model as used in the latest IPCC report's predictions
for the coming century, but the difference is that it starts from the
real observed status of the ocean and the atmosphere," Dr Smith, the
paper's lead author, explained.

"Greenhouse gases and aerosols are also included, but it is really
trying to predict any [natural] variability on top of that.

"We start with the present state of the ocean, and we try to predict
how it is going to evolve," he told BBC News.

Better understanding

The model, called the Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), is
based on a well established climate model already used by Hadley
Centre scientists.

* * *
"The climate has already changed, and it is continuing to change;
people need the best information available to help them adapt to these
changes"
Dr Doug Smith,
Hadley Centre climate scientist
* * *

But in order to offer a projection for the coming decade rather than a
century ahead, it also assesses the current state of the oceans and
atmosphere.

This allows the researchers to predict how natural shifts, such as the
El Nino phenomenon in the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic
Oscillation, will affect the global climate system.
[actually El Nino is partly natural but also may
reflect yet another aspect of climate change;
see "Climate Change Could Bring More Frequent El Nino Weather"
http://archive.greenpeace.org/majordomo/index-press-releases/1997/msg00470.html
-ED]

They hope this data, when combined with projections of greenhouse gas
and aerosol emissions from fossil fuels and volcanic eruptions, will
present one of the most detailed outlooks to date.

"One reason why the 10-year projection has not been done before is
because the ocean has traditionally had very poor observational
coverage," Dr Smith said.

"They been very sparse and a little bit "noisy" so they have been
difficult to interpret what the real temperatures were over large
parts of the ocean."

However, recent improvements in data collection from satellites and in-
situ instruments have allowed climatologists to improve their
understanding of how ocean dynamics influence the climate system.

He added that decadal outlooks would provide businesses and
politicians with meaningful information.

"Nearly all businesses have to make decisions on that sort of
timescale; they plan for the next five to ten years.

"The climate has already changed, and it is continuing to change;
people need the best information available to help them adapt to these
changes."

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/6939347.stm

Published: 2007/08/09 20:12:35 GMT

© BBC MMVII


KT
2007-08-09 20:23:42 EST
On Aug 9, 11:56 pm, Whata Fool <wh...@fool.ami> wrote:
> On Thu, 09 Aug 2007 23:32:57 -0000, EconomicDemocracy Coop
>
> <econdemocr...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >* * *
> >"The climate has already changed, and it is continuing to change;
> >people need the best information available to help them adapt to these
> >changes"
> >Dr Doug Smith,
> >Hadley Centre climate scientist
> >* * *
>
> Of course, if the temperature is between 60 and 70, wear a
> sweater, if it is between 50 and 60, wear a jacket, if it is below 50,
> wear a coat, if it is below freezing, wear long johns.

Do you still eat coon too?


Aloha.kakuikanu
2007-08-09 20:34:40 EST
On Aug 9, 3:32 pm, EconomicDemocracy Coop <econdemocr...@gmail.com>
wrote:
> Writing in Science, Met Office researchers project that at least half
> of the years between 2009 and 2014 are likely to exceed existing
> records.
>
> However, the Hadley Centre researchers said that the influence of
> natural climatic variations were likely to dampen the effects of
> emissions from human activities between now and 2009.
>
> But over the decade as a whole, they project the global average
> temperature in 2014 to be 0.3C warmer than 2004.

In other words, we make no prediction till 2009 (when our research
grant expires). After 2009 who cares, there would be thousands new
predictions, so that ours (which failed to materialize) would be
simply forgotten.


Whata Fool
2007-08-10 00:56:28 EST
On Thu, 09 Aug 2007 23:32:57 -0000, EconomicDemocracy Coop
<*y@gmail.com> wrote:

>* * *
>"The climate has already changed, and it is continuing to change;
>people need the best information available to help them adapt to these
>changes"
>Dr Doug Smith,
>Hadley Centre climate scientist
>* * *

Of course, if the temperature is between 60 and 70, wear a
sweater, if it is between 50 and 60, wear a jacket, if it is below 50,
wear a coat, if it is below freezing, wear long johns.




Arclein
2007-08-10 02:55:56 EST
On Aug 9, 4:32 pm, EconomicDemocracy Coop <econdemocr...@gmail.com>
wrote:
> Ten-year climate model unveiled
> Scientists say they have developed a model to predict how ocean
> currents, as well as human activities, will affect temperatures over
> the next decade.
>
> By including short-term natural events, such as El Nino, a UK team
> says it is able to offer 10-year projections.
>
> Models have previously focused on how the globe will warm over a
> century.
>
> Writing in Science, Met Office researchers project that at least half
> of the years between 2009 and 2014 are likely to exceed existing
> records.
>
> However, the Hadley Centre researchers said that the influence of
> natural climatic variations were likely to dampen the effects of
> emissions from human activities between now and 2009.
>
> But over the decade as a whole, they project the global average
> temperature in 2014 to be 0.3C warmer than 2004.
>
> Currently, 1998 is the warmest year on record, when the global mean
> surface temperature was 14.54C (58.17F).
>
> Doug Smith, a climate scientist at the Hadley Centre, explained how
> the new model differed from existing ones.
>
> "On a 10-year timescale, both natural internal variability and the
> global warming signal (human induced climate change) are important;
> whereas looking out to 2100, only the global warming signal will
> dominate."
>
> The latest assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
> Change (IPCC), said that human activity was "very likely" causing the
> world to warm, and predicted the global average temperature were
> probably going to increase by 1.8-4.0C (3.2-7.2F) by the end of the
> century.
>
> "It is the same model as used in the latest IPCC report's predictions
> for the coming century, but the difference is that it starts from the
> real observed status of the ocean and the atmosphere," Dr Smith, the
> paper's lead author, explained.
>
> "Greenhouse gases and aerosols are also included, but it is really
> trying to predict any [natural] variability on top of that.
>
> "We start with the present state of the ocean, and we try to predict
> how it is going to evolve," he told BBC News.
>
> Better understanding
>
> The model, called the Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), is
> based on a well established climate model already used by Hadley
> Centre scientists.
>
> * * *
> "The climate has already changed, and it is continuing to change;
> people need the best information available to help them adapt to these
> changes"
> Dr Doug Smith,
> Hadley Centre climate scientist
> * * *
>
> But in order to offer a projection for the coming decade rather than a
> century ahead, it also assesses the current state of the oceans and
> atmosphere.
>
> This allows the researchers to predict how natural shifts, such as the
> El Nino phenomenon in the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic
> Oscillation, will affect the global climate system.
> [actually El Nino is partly natural but also may
> reflect yet another aspect of climate change;
> see "Climate Change Could Bring More Frequent El Nino Weather"http://archive.greenpeace.org/majordomo/index-press-releases/1997/msg...
> -ED]
>
> They hope this data, when combined with projections of greenhouse gas
> and aerosol emissions from fossil fuels and volcanic eruptions, will
> present one of the most detailed outlooks to date.
>
> "One reason why the 10-year projection has not been done before is
> because the ocean has traditionally had very poor observational
> coverage," Dr Smith said.
>
> "They been very sparse and a little bit "noisy" so they have been
> difficult to interpret what the real temperatures were over large
> parts of the ocean."
>
> However, recent improvements in data collection from satellites and in-
> situ instruments have allowed climatologists to improve their
> understanding of how ocean dynamics influence the climate system.
>
> He added that decadal outlooks would provide businesses and
> politicians with meaningful information.
>
> "Nearly all businesses have to make decisions on that sort of
> timescale; they plan for the next five to ten years.
>
> "The climate has already changed, and it is continuing to change;
> people need the best information available to help them adapt to these
> changes."
>
> Story from BBC NEWS:http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/6939347.stm
>
> Published: 2007/08/09 20:12:35 GMT
>
> © BBC MMVII

The most telling item is the basic admission that ocean surface
temperature measurements are only now reaching a confidence level that
permits usage in climate modeling on anything like a real decade
basis. Of course the difference in the heat content of water as
compared to air is orders of magnitude. That means that the primary
control (and moderator)on athmospheric temperature is oceanic surface
temperature.

We are now having the first attempt.

This also means that previous models were based on plugged in best
guesses completely open to manipulation based on the anticipated
outcome.

If the input is rubbish then the output is __________________?


Server 13
2007-08-10 14:28:28 EST

"aloha.kakuikanu" <aloha.kakuikanu@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1186706080.371207.52680@i38g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
> On Aug 9, 3:32 pm, EconomicDemocracy Coop <econdemocr...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>> Writing in Science, Met Office researchers project that at least half
>> of the years between 2009 and 2014 are likely to exceed existing
>> records.
>>
>> However, the Hadley Centre researchers said that the influence of
>> natural climatic variations were likely to dampen the effects of
>> emissions from human activities between now and 2009.
>>
>> But over the decade as a whole, they project the global average
>> temperature in 2014 to be 0.3C warmer than 2004.
>
> In other words, we make no prediction till 2009 (when our research
> grant expires

Cite?


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